Ontario Tax Sale Property Forum
Tax Sale Forum => General => Topic started by: twinn1 on July 29, 2008, 02:39:07 PM
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Long time lurker here, I have posted before under twinn but cannot locate my password. Question for you pro's on here. I have noticed a large drop in prices of cottages listed on MLS over last year, do you still feel its viable to bid on tax slae properties? I am looking for imput from those who have actually built on vacant land. I am seeing a lot of waterfront cottages for sale in the 100-200K area and with lot services running approx 50K(Well/Septic/Hydro@$1000/feet etc..) not sure if it is still worth bidding on properties. Any thoughts
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There is still deals out there in this game, there is also tonnes of crap. You are right about servicing costs , so when you bid you had better like the land and have a very good idea of the local market.
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That's correct. And very important go and see the lots you want to bid on, do not believe everything you see posted here.
Also, talk to neighbours and contact some real estate agents to get a feel for the market.
Just learning here
Larry
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You really have to have the skills when talking to people, have to know what to say and how to say and when to say things. This is not something you can easily learn, as I noticed. Some skills you are born with. Obviously, you would not go and tell a neighbour or a real estate that you are bidding on a tax sale property.
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Also, talk to neighbours and contact some real estate agents to get a feel for the market
Absolutely the worst plan in the world...NEVER repeat NEVER ,and just for good measure, NEVER talk to anyone ..especially neighbours. The neighbours will simply scoop the land and double their own lot size. Real estate agents...please ..they are a trustworthy lot .. How can you get a feel for the market from a real estate agent? These scum will tell you anything to con you out of your money..If you go to buy in love canal they will tell you its a popular neighbourhood, ..'This development is famous..its in all the papers" and in a tax sale they will end run you in a second and then have the balls to phone you in a month to see if you want to buy the piece you asked about..at twice the price they paid
Just use the MLS and remember that the prices on there are ASKING, Not sold. MLS listings are also subject to getting a building permit and environmental not "as is where is" like a tax sale piece. In the north there are MLS listings that are 2 to 3 times value fishing for suckers and unfortunately some suckers still come along.
If you have access to the info, check neighbourhood sales, not listings of unsold.
When it comes to cottage country many of the sales up there are just silly. And you are right , they are dropping but I'm still expecting a big drop after this fall as people are finally realizing that the boom is over and the new assessments come out. If you want a deal on land there is many tax sale deals but forget popular cottage country like muskoka.
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PMF... I agree with you 100%, NEVER mention anything to the neighbours, what kind of business acumen is it when you are inviting the competetion to bid against you?
I too am waiting for the drop in cottage country prices, I would say that in some areas they are already down 20-30%. Cottages used to be a cash game a few years ago then banks started giving mortgages on cottages with heavy restrictions(ie. must be four season home with well/septic etc...) I have a feeling that a lot of Muskoka cottage buyers tapped their HELOC's in order to buy their cottages. With lenders being more cautious and the real estate market and the economy in general cooling in the GTA, a lot of cottages will be up for sale.
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Cottage prices may have dropped abit but I think we're close to a bottom. Sales volume is at the highest right now that they've been in past 18 months. People know that it's now or never to save a few bucks on what they would've paid in 2005. I have some friends currently looking and they have both lost properties they liked by taking a week to think about it.
As for building on an empty lot, I did it. Here's what I remember roughly:
320' drilled well - $7500 installed w/pump and pressure tank
driveway, some regrading and some clearing (one acre lot) - $3500
septic - $5000ish
foundation - $16000 + $1200 for concrete floor (basement).. would've been about $6000 for basic foundation (no basement)
permits - can't remember
I'm sure I forgot other stuff.. but these costs above are a small fraction of the total cost of a full cottage when you add up drywall, finishings (trim and baseboard), framing, plywood, shingles, flooring, plumbing, furnace, doors, decking, etc.
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320' drilled well - $7500 installed w/pump and pressure tank
driveway, some regrading and some clearing (one acre lot) - $3500
septic - $5000ish
foundation - $16000 + $1200 for concrete floor (basement).. would've been about $6000 for basic foundation (no basement)
permits - can't remember
I'm sure I forgot other stuff.. but these costs above are a small fraction of the total cost of a full cottage when you add up drywall, finishings (trim and baseboard), framing, plywood, shingles, flooring, plumbing, furnace, doors, decking, etc.
Speed, your memory is fading, you have just begun to scratch the surface. I am currently building, and of course every site is different. In my case we decided on a full, walk-out, basement...we had to blast the rock and that added $20m to the cost, but I now have some really nice landscaping boulders to move around, and I won't have to buy stone for a few features I want to include. We are also over 300 feet from the road and I ran underground hydro primary to my own transformer ... cost approx. $12m right to electrical box in garage.
We are anticipating a total cost of approx. $400m for 2000 square feet with a two car garage attached, and a 600 square foot guest loft above. Again, full walkout basement with foam block foundation, and a geo-thermal heating system (it's the way to go, and if anyone is interested please contact me). Should round out to about $200 per foot. Building permit, development charges, etc. were cheaper than big cities, but they are going up. Septic costs depends on number of bedrooms, and plumbing fixtures...ours was $8,000 (two bedroom, two bath and kitchen/laundry).
Really depends on what you plan on building, and how much you plan to do yourself. Guy down the street is building a monster cottage that will put him out $1.2million (not including land). Ours should be worth 7 or 8 by the time we are done, and my kids can pay the capital gains tax when I croak - I don't really care what the Muskoka market is doing short term (except for the property tax implications), since this is a long term investment.
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Speed, how long ago did you build that cottage, your prices are sound very low. I still think cottages have a way to go down but who knows there are two schoools of thought re cottage prices.
1. High gas prices will make cottage/boating less affordable for those that are already in heavy debt, they will sell their cottages and toys to maintain their Mcansion in the city. This the view I agree with(A family memeber works at a mjor bank as a FA, tells me that their are a crazy amount of people who are overleveraged.
2. Baby boomers will retire and look to move out of the city, they will sell their city properties for a nice profit and build out in cottage country, thus increasing the price and demand for properties. I think that this has already started but I beleive that real estate market will correct in the GTA and Canada in general and and by the time the majority if baby boomers hit retirement, there city properties will be worth less then they are now.
Frank, is the property your developing in Gravenhurst? Off of M lake? Kind of sounds like the one that you out bid me on a few years ago? With all of that blasting you mentioned.... if it is Congrats, that was an awesome property, I think your bid double of what my bid was(Approx 35K). At that time, I thought it was too much as there were other cottages for sale on the other side of the lake selling for 150-200K, but these were just basically cabins, nothing as eloborate as you mentiond.
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Yup, you won't get anything on that lake for under $250 - even the most run down since the lots are worth min. $150, and there is one listed for $1.6 (doubtful they will get that). Beauty is the proximity to hogtown...start getting north of Huntsville, and the gas prices will eat you up. Sold my place north of North Bay for that reason - but prices that far north are actually increasing since the widening of the highway.
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Frank
I trust you will post some picts as it gets nearer to completion, Sounds like a nice little getaway...is this the one penny lot??
Oh the 12k to be 300 ft from the rd, best money you every spent. Drives me nuts when a see house on the front of a property. They save 10 k on a 300k or 400k project and drop the final value by half
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Started building in 2002, but really took my time. Did most of the inside stuff myself.
Sure those prices were low.. I really shopped around. The concrete floor was the biggest deal I got. Some local guys wanted 5-6 grand but I fortunately found some guys from Orillia to come up and do it for a good price (and they did a good job).
Fortunately I got a sloping lot with no solid rock. Just a bunch of big boulders. Significant regrading and blasting was one cost that I didn't have to worry about, just lots of chainsawing, some pitrun (gravel & sand) and a few good runs with a dozer.
Had the septic done by a guy that lives 2 mins away, so I think that factored into the price.
Just don't get one quote on ANYTHING, prices can and do vary ALOT.
Good luck with building.. at some point when you try to think about how much you've spent you'll probably decide you don't want to know. At least I got the land cheap (not from a tax sale).
Speed, how long ago did you build that cottage, your prices are sound very low. I still think cottages have a way to go down but who knows there are two schoools of thought re cottage prices.
1. High gas prices will make cottage/boating less affordable for those that are already in heavy debt, they will sell their cottages and toys to maintain their Mcansion in the city. This the view I agree with(A family memeber works at a mjor bank as a FA, tells me that their are a crazy amount of people who are overleveraged.
2. Baby boomers will retire and look to move out of the city, they will sell their city properties for a nice profit and build out in cottage country, thus increasing the price and demand for properties. I think that this has already started but I beleive that real estate market will correct in the GTA and Canada in general and and by the time the majority if baby boomers hit retirement, there city properties will be worth less then they are now.
Frank, is the property your developing in Gravenhurst? Off of M lake? Kind of sounds like the one that you out bid me on a few years ago? With all of that blasting you mentioned.... if it is Congrats, that was an awesome property, I think your bid double of what my bid was(Approx 35K). At that time, I thought it was too much as there were other cottages for sale on the other side of the lake selling for 150-200K, but these were just basically cabins, nothing as eloborate as you mentiond.
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Twinn1 / Speed et al:
1. Cottage prices will come down because of US mortgage financing problems. George Bush said it better
then I ever could "Wall Street got drunk" . We are still seeing the hangover like early in the morning
after a good party.
2. Canada in much better shape but we will still see the effects. I pulled out of Mutual Funds and have sold a lot of my real estate including all in big city. (Family had been there since the 1830's)
3. When you are already an hour from the city makes the vacation property drive much easier. In my case for my tax sale purchase well less then 1/2 an hour on good country roads that will never get a traffic jam.
Gas not a factor in my case because of local proximity.
4. I try to keep my tax sale purchases local so I can properly research. As you pro's have commented
construction costs in rural property are not cheap, but if you are not rushed you can keep them under
control. I will let the big boys do the high end Muskoka.
5. In such an environment you have to buy at the right price. If a fool wants to pay more so be it. PFM and I had an extensive exchange about that earlier in the spring. (See Galway posts).
6. My interest now is another possible aftermath of the mortgage mess in the States that seems to escaped the esteemed members of this board. Recently I have seen two cases where mortgage holder screwed up and did not redeem taxes. One of which happened to me personally on a property I bid on but had to scramble at last minute because I had expected it to be redeemed.
Tendency was in last few years for mortgage issuer to sell the mortgage to whomever. Maybe the "whomevers" don't know how to administer a mortgage. If so will result in a much better class of tax sale property coming up for bid in future.
I smell blood but will need a little more evidence to find the body. Then I have to stay out of the way of the big sharks here. The only saving grace for us "Remora" fish (If you know biology) is that the big sharks will be busy feasting in Muskoka. This may leave a few scraps for us poor folks in eastern Ontario.
enjoy as they say we live in interesting times.
Dave2
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Its not only cottages where the bargains are coming. All toys are on sale. I have been dying to get a 35 to 40ft sail boat and although the market is down ( 35% due to exchange) I think more bargains to come within the year as the bloodshed continues in the US.
As per cottages , I still think more discounts to come ( after the fall) but if you are a keeper, who cares what dip the market takes, Means nothing unless you are mortgaged and need to renew. If you are keeping it it is only good news as you can kick the assessment value down. I still think we are looking at 2000 to 2003 prices as the bottom. And I base this entirely on best guess and not one shred of evidence ( pulled numbers out of ones butt so to say) ;D
However all this has no effect on tax sales ...POS on the other hand...bargains ( as long as you understand the POS valuation scam ) For those who don't here is the basic summary.
If a bank sells a POS property for below value they can be sued by the previous owner. Therefore banks ask ridiculous prices in order to avoid any possible litigation. Banks have appraisals done using local sales ( not taking into account the POS house is usually in substantially worse shape as someone who cant afford a mortgage payment isn't renovating or tossing in a new kitchen) The banks then value the POS house equal to or higher then the highest sale in the neighbourhood and then ask 15 to 20% more. Unfortunately many idiots see POS and presume its a deal. They overpay like crazy as they are moron deal hunters ( who all go away crying) .
So as a general rule if you pay more then 30% below ask on a POS you have been screwed. This is the same as Repodepo in Toronto . The asking prices are higher then retail and some morons get ripped as they pay close to ask. However some good deals there if you are lucky.
Baby boomers will retire and look to move out of the city, they will sell their city properties for a nice profit and build out in cottage country, thus increasing the price and demand for properties. I think that this has already started but I beleive that real estate market will correct in the GTA and Canada in general and and by the time the majority if baby boomers hit retirement, there city properties will be worth less then they are now.
Very good point which trashes my theorys... Toronto and GTA continue to cement over every piece of grass and build condos everywhere and the city is turning into a complete concrete Sh*thole. Anyone who can is moving out and trying to go where you can actually breathe. Places like Barrie Collingwood and Huntsville are the recepients of the refugees , at least until they get stupid and cement over everything. ( Barrie is targeted for cement) Ontario has the worst planners on the planet, build condos to hold the people and put in more stop lights. Build a green zone to look good then send out an order for the citys to stack the people at 150 to 200 per acre outside of it. Green zone great plan, Order to stack the people..bad plan but saves a the province a pile on highways and public transit. Every time you see a new condo being shoehorned in..dont blame the town , blame the province. Lets not even touch the destruction of the harbourfront in Toronto. Every other city in the world cleaned up the harbours in the 70s and 80s and made parks....Toronto sold the whole lot off to "friendly" developers. Pricks even tried to condo exhibition park until the province stepped in and stopped the deal.
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http://www.placestogrow.ca/images/pdfs/FINAL-GUIDE-ENG.pdf (http://www.placestogrow.ca/images/pdfs/FINAL-GUIDE-ENG.pdf)
Go to page 6 for a list of pavement targets ( essentially where not to go if you want to breathe and actually see grass)
The plan can make sense but doesnt allow for grass in the urban areas, So to see a park you have to go outside the citys as the density targets dont allow for any green zone inside the cities ..Concrete jungles.. The province dumps these tagets on the citys, Any city that wants a nice downtown has to build mega highrises if they want space for parks. Several cities are fighting the province. IE Niagara wants single family homes so people can have a nice standard of living and actually have a back yard ..Province wants condo blocks stacked up like cordwood
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Ontario has the worst planners on the planet, build condos to hold the people and put in more stop lights. Build a green zone to look good then send out an order for the citys to stack the people at 150 to 200 per acre outside of it
Have you seen Bucharest, or Budapest, or Prague, or any of the eastern European capitals? Their downtowns have been like that for years and years, so Ontario is kind of behind. I am not saying that this is good or it is OK, because it is not. But Ontario is not the worst, I have seen worse.
Larry
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Those citys are 3 and 4 storey for the most part. Not even close to the density of 400 per hectare.. Thats closer to Sao paulo levels
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Bucharest downtown:
(http://www.bucharest-driver.com/images/bucuresti_birdeye.jpg)
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Plenty of Florida properties (many of which are foreclosures) are about 20 to 25 cents on the dollar compared to 2005.. I know.. I just bought one that is closing tomorrow.
Cottage and land prices in cottage country have lowered modestly, but its doubtful they will go much lower if at all. The agents are busier this year than they have been in a long time. This means that the demand is quite healthy, even with the prices only lowered slightly compared to last year.
You still can't get a decent road accessible acre of land on the water for under 100k within 2.5 hours from Toronto, and the one's listed for anything close to that are getting snapped up in 1-2 weeks. Doesn't look like a collapsing market to me. Reminds me of when condos started selling for 150k in the city and some people balked. Now many of those condos are selling for 350-400k. What goes up doesn't necessarily have to go down when it comes to sought after real estate.
Twinn1 / Speed et al:
1. Cottage prices will come down because of US mortgage financing problems. George Bush said it better
then I ever could "Wall Street got drunk" . We are still seeing the hangover like early in the morning
after a good party.
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Larry
2007 Bucharest Population Density 26 people per hectare. but thats average for the city .
Those buildings are 9 and 10 storey probably run about 75 to 100 max density average in the core. And those were created under communist dictatorship planners
MAXIMUM Population Density in Prague 100 to 150 IN THE DENSEST district
http://www.ceroi.net/reports/prague/drivers/Population/maps.htm (http://www.ceroi.net/reports/prague/drivers/Population/maps.htm)
400 Per Hectare is INSANE and requires 30 plus storeys and lined up side by side , One needs grass, roads, sidewalks and parking in that calculation so 30 storeys may be a very low number
The Highest density in the world.....Mumbai India 295, , If you have been there then you know being in hell would be a vacation from there Of course New Delhi is 110 and is just as bad , Sao Paulo 90 , Hong kong 62
Present Toronto average is 27
The highest downtown core is Hong Kong DOWNTOWN at 465... Kowloon at 420
Prague downtown ( 7 storey max)
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Largest cities in the world ranked by population density (1 to 125)
Rank City / Urban area Country Population Land area(in sqKm) Density(people per sqKm) ( divide by 100 for hectare) Blue are the been there /done that
1 Mumbai India 14,350,000 484 29,650
2 Kolkata India 12,700,000 531 23,900
3 Karachi Pakistan 9,800,000 518 18,900
4 Lagos Nigeria 13,400,000 738 18,150
5 Shenzhen China 8,000,000 466 17,150
6 Seoul/Incheon South Korea 17,500,000 1,049 16,700
7 Taipei Taiwan 5,700,000 376 15,200
8 Chennai India 5,950,000 414 14,350
9 Bogota Colombia 7,000,000 518 13,500
10 Shanghai China 10,000,000 746 13,400
11 Lima Peru 7,000,000 596 11,750
12 Beijing China 8,614,000 748 11,500
13 Delhi India 14,300,000 1,295 11,050
14 Kinshasa Congo 5,000,000 469 10,650
15 Manila Philippines 14,750,000 1,399 10,550
16 Tehran Iran 7,250,000 686 10,550
17 Jakarta Indonesia 14,250,000 1,360 10,500
18 Tianjin China 4,750,000 453 10,500
19 Bangalore India 5,400,000 534 10,100
20 Ho Chi Minh City Vietnam 4,900,000 518 9,450
21 Cairo Egypt 12,200,000 1,295 9,400
22 Baghdad Iraq 5,500,000 596 9,250
23 Shenyang China 4,200,000 453 9,250
24 Hyderabad India 5,300,000 583 9,100
25 Sao Paulo Brazil 17,700,000 1,968 9,000
26 St Petersburg Russia 5,300,000 622 8,550
27 Mexico City Mexico 17,400,000 2,072 8,400
28 Santiago Chile 5,425,000 648 8,400
29 Singapore Singapore 4,000,000 479 8,350
30 Lahore Pakistan 5,100,000 622 8,200
31 Recife Brazil 3,025,000 376 8,050
32 Istanbul Turkey 9,000,000 1,166 7,700
33 Dalian China 2,750,000 389 7,100
34 Khartoum Sudan 4,000,000 583 6,850
35 Rio de Janeiro Brazil 10,800,000 1,580 6,850
36 Monterey Mexico 3,200,000 479 6,700
37 Bangkok Thailand 6,500,000 1,010 6,450
38 Osaka/Kobe/Kyoto Japan 16,425,000 2,564 6,400
39 Guadalajara Mexico 3,500,000 596 5,900
40 Athens Greece 3,685,000 684 5,400
41 Ankara Turkey 3,100,000 583 5,300
42 Madrid Spain 4,900,000 945 5,200
43 London UK 8,278,000 1,623 5,100
44 Tel Aviv Israel 2,300,000 453 5,050
45 Sapporo Japan 2,075,000 414 5,000
46 Buenos Aires Argentina 11,200,000 2,266 4,950
47 Moscow Russia 10,500,000 2,150 4,900
48 Barcelona Spain 3,900,000 803 4,850
49 Porto Alegre Brazil 2,800,000 583 4,800
50 Tokyo/Yokohama Japan 33,200,000 6,993 4,750
51 Belo Horizonte Brazil 4,000,000 868 4,600
52 Fortaleza Brazil 2,650,000 583 4,550
53 Warsaw Poland 2,000,000 466 4,300
54 Tashkent Uzbekistan 2,200,000 531 4,150
55 Naples Italy 2,400,000 583 4,100
56 Katowice Poland 2,200,000 544 4,050
57 Leeds/Bradford UK 1,499,000 370 4,050
58 Manchester UK 2,245,000 558 4,000
59 CapeTown South Africa 2,700,000 686 3,950
60 Fukuoka Japan 2,150,000 544 3,950
61 Taichung Taiwan 2,000,000 510 3,900
62 Baku/Sumqayit Azerbaijan 2,100,000 544 3,850
63 Curitiba Brazil 2,500,000 648 3,850
64 Birmingham UK 2,284,000 600 3,800
65 Berlin Germany 3,675,000 984 3,750
66 Riyadh Saudi Arabia 4,000,000 1,101 3,650
67 Campinas Brazil 1,750,000 492 3,550
68 Jeddah Saudi Arabia 2,750,000 777 3,550
69 Paris France 9,645,000 2,723 3,550
70 Durban South Africa 2,900,000 829 3,500
71 Vienna Austria 1,550,000 453 3,400
72 Accra Ghana 1,500,000 453 3,300
73 Glasgow UK 1,200,000 368 3,250
74 Nagoya Japan 9,000,000 2,875 3,150
75 Quito Ecuador 1,500,000 479 3,150
76 Donetsk Ukraine 1,400,000 451 3,100
77 Goiania Brazil 1,475,000 479 3,100
78 Munich Germany 1,600,000 518 3,100
79 Stuttgart Germany 1,250,000 414 3,000
80 Dublin Ireland 1,075,000 365 2,950
81 Kuwait Kuwait 1,600,000 544 2,950
82 Nizhni Novgorod Russia 1,500,000 505 2,950
83 Rome Italy 2,500,000 842 2,950
84 Phnom Phen Cambodia 1,500,000 518 2,900
85 Beirut Lebanon 1,800,000 648 2,800
86 Brasilia Brazil 1,625,000 583 2,800
87 Essen/D?sseldorf Germany 7,350,000 2,642 2,800
88 Lumumbashi Congo 1,200,000 427 2,800
89 Kuala Lumpur Malaysia 4,400,000 1,606 2,750
90 Los Angeles USA 11,789,000 4,320 2,750
91 Milan Italy 4,250,000 1,554 2,750
92 Pretoria South Africa 1,850,000 673 2,750
93 Stockholm Sweden 1,400,000 518 2,700
94 Turin Italy 1,350,000 500 2,700
95 Dubai UAE 1,900,000 712 2,650
96 Porto Portugal 1,035,000 389 2,650
97 Toronto Canada 4,367,000 1,655 2,650
98 Budapest Hungary 1,800,000 702 2,550
99 Lisbon Portugal 2,250,000 881 2,550
100 Johannesburg/East Rand South Africa 6,000,000 2,396 2,500
101 Rotterdam Netherlands 1,325,000 531 2,500
102 Harare Zimbabwe 1,750,000 712 2,450
103 Cologne/Bonn Germany 1,960,000 816 2,400
104 San Francisco/Oakland USA 3,229,000 1,365 2,350
105 Frankfurt Germany 2,260,000 984 2,300
106 Hamburg Germany 1,925,000 829 2,300
107 San Jose USA 1,538,000 674 2,300
108 Arabia Saudi 1,525,000 673 2,250
109 Brussels Belgium 1,570,000 712 2,200
110 Lille France 1,050,000 474 2,200
111 Helsinki Finland 1,000,000 479 2,100
112 Port Elizabeth South Africa 900,000 427 2,100
113 Sydney Australia 3,502,000 1,687 2,100
114 New York USA 17,800,000 8,683 2,050
115 Auckland New Zealand 1,050,000 531 2,000
116 New Orleans USA 1,009,000 512 1,950
117 Copenhagen Denmark 1,525,000 816 1,850
118 Montreal. Canada 3,216,000 1,740 1,850
119 Honolulu USA 718,000 399 1,800
120 Las Vegas USA 1,314,000 741 1,750
121 Miami USA 4,919,000 2,891 1,700
122 Ottawa/Hull Canada 828,000 490 1,700
123 Vancouver Canada 1,830,000 1,120 1,650
124 Antwerp Belgium 915,000 596 1,550
125 Denver USA 1,985,000 1,292 1,550
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Most Eastern Europeans capitals are low to medium rise buildouts were a 15 floor building would be considered large, even the new developments are limited to 10 floors in many cases. Furthermore, there are a multide of "green areas" and historic sites. The metro system(subway) system they have in those countries would put Toronto to shame, in each of those countries they have better subway systems in cities that are 100km outside of their capitals that would rival those of major US cities.
Toronto suffers from big city syndrome, the politicans think if they repeat the mantra that "toronto is a world class city" enough times it becomes real. On a world level Toronto is nothing.
Speed, I know that cottages are selling at a brisk pace this summer, I still hold that those prices will drop down to 2000-2002 levels, medium incomes have not increased in line with market values of cottages. Basically it is inheritance and home equity increases that have driven cottage prices, if the RE market stalls in the GTA, those cottages will come down. Canada will go downt the same route as the US. I still remeber the crash of 89, those that brought had to wait unti 2001 to break even, history repeats itself. How many cottages were purchased with HELOC money from prime residents?
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"Speed, I know that cottages are selling at a brisk pace this summer, I still hold that those prices will drop down to 2000-2002 levels, medium incomes have not increased in line with market values of cottages. Basically it is inheritance and home equity increases that have driven cottage prices, if the RE market stalls in the GTA, those cottages will come down. Canada will go down the same route as the US. I still remember the crash of 89, those that brought had to wait until 2001 to break even, history repeats itself. How many cottages were purchased with HELOC money from prime residents"
We can sit all day and talk about this, I don't think we will every get an agreement. I think it was last February / March where me and Steve argued about this.. I figure I would wait till next Feb and hit Steve will a " I told you so" Of course if they don't drop as bad as I think I will make simply up an excuse ..something about the US election and the reduction of oil to $ 84 a barrel etc etc just so I don't have to admit I was wrong ;D
This is a wait and see
As per Toronto not being a world class city....Understatement of the year.. The city is boring, has wiped out any possible chance of being nice by condoing the Sh*t out of everything. Has done nothing to improve itself or its infrastructure. The "planning" Is entirely based on profit ( public and Private) Toronto Airport has no rapid transit system, The harbourfront is a concrete sh*thole and the transportation network is totally gridlocked and has been for 30 years . There has been absolutely no planning done in that city for 50 years. You can drive from Stoney Creek to Oshawa and it is just concrete.Any interesting district they had are being condo'd
You want world class potential..Montreal .. Probably the only city in Canada that actually has planning and isn't ruled by tax base. They actually think about lifestyle of the citizens, Not just tax grabbing.
The most pathetic part of all this is we have more acreage per person than any country in the world and we pack them in like cattle and virtually no parks or greenspaces in Toronto . The only way Toronto will ever show any style is to fill in the harbour and turn it into a giant park . They also need to put a 5 Storey Maximum on all new building ( like that will happen) They say don't use a car but the rapid transit is a joke.
Oakville is building North of 5, Completely new city and they have planned it all ( or not planned) where it is still car required to get anything . The have 18 soccer fields, sounds great, All in one park..WTF?? So everyone has to drive to it. Didn't consider nine parks spread around with 2 fields each so kids could actually walk to the game and people could actually have grass.And needless to say they didn't consider traffic circles so we don't have to sit at stop lights every 500 ft.
We have to get away from the big city mentality, People want to live in smaller community's. Take a look at England. The cities are built up of little hamlets which hub around the city core. Lots of green space between the hamlets. Newcastle proper has a population of 180K yet the greater metro area is actually 900K . which all use the downtown for nightlife , museums etc. And its not well planned by British standards but way better then this dive.
London is a mess ( something about 1000 years ) but its still way better then Toronto and can get around the city no problem without a car. The only highrises are council flats which are ghettos and are being phased out. The London Bridge Tower hopefully will fail but if it doesn't it is one interesting piece that will stand out with style.
We are going opposite and stuffing all the people in the core of Toronto and destroying it so noone wants to come to the city due to the concrete jungle. When a developer comes to town with a plan for a 70 storey skyscraper. Don't shake his hand..run him out of town..send him packing back to New York.
Canadian Mayors and Planners are only concerned with increased Tax base ( and salaries for themselves) and could care less about the lifestyle of Citizens.
Rant rant rant
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PFM, maybe you should actually visit Toronto sometime. Toronto is one of the top cities in the world for amount of green space. The total size of all parks alone in Toronto is bigger than most medium sized cities. If you're in a decent part of Toronto (and there's lots of them) you'll see that the average lot size is bigger than most new developments in the GTA, and that there's huge parks all over the city. People seem to only point out the worst and ignore anything good about somewhere that they don't live. Anyways, how about we leave the Toronto bashing to a new thread, this one is supposed to be about Muskoka.
As for the cottage prices, I don't see a corelation with median incomes. Prices weren't exactly growing at a huge pace in the 90's when incomes were shooting up like crazy. We've had two bear markets in 9 years and that's never happened before and prices haven't dropped much anywhere in Ontario (except Windsor and Oshawa).
The price of oil isn't going to change things much easier. Most properties were worth about the same as they are now when oil was $80/barrel. But who knows, the only rule in real estate is "anything can happen".
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I totally agree about Toronto. As I said, I have seen much worse.
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PFM, As an urban planner myself working both public and private sectors, it is unfortunate to see people think this way of the profession. Most planners WANT to see change and encourage different built forms of the environment, but we are limited by the existing rules and policies that we have in Ontario. And for the record, Toronto is considered a world-class city and one of the best cities in North America; you should read up on some of the planning documents that have come into effect in the past decade. It is pretty interesting.
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PFM, As an urban planner myself working both public and private sectors, it is unfortunate to see people think this way of the profession. Most planners WANT to see change and encourage different built forms of the environment, but we are limited by the existing rules and policies that we have in Ontario. And for the record, Toronto is considered a world-class city and one of the best cities in North America; you should read up on some of the planning documents that have come into effect in the past decade. It is pretty interesting.
Pfm is bang on. The City sells off it's land for cheap to condo developers or to MLSE. Tear down the Gardiner to revitalize the harbourfront or to build more condos. Toronto is for sale to the condo developers. For example from March 08:
"The city has decided to sell a prime piece of land on the Bloor St. W. strip for a bargain price and expects the property to be flipped quickly to allow a 100-metre condo tower on the site. After a closed-door session, city council voted 28-4 yesterday to accept the original offer of $3.38 million made by McDonald's for the site the restaurant chain occupies with a cheap 99-year lease, across from the Royal Ontario Museum. Local councillor Adam Vaughan said he understands that McDonald's plans to resell the land to Kazakhstan-based developer Bazis International Inc., which is building an 80-storey condo building down the street at 1 Bloor and already owns the lot adjacent to McDonald's. The chain would get a new restaurant in the building as part of the deal. Just two weeks ago, a blue-ribbon panel that examined the city's books concluded Toronto could do a better job of managing its massive real estate portfolio, and said the city could realize an extra $150 million a year from asset sales"
world class city that doesn't have a direct link of subway to the airport? Build ROW streetcar lines instead of subways because they're cheaper but the streets aren't wide enough to support the ROW causing big car traffic snarls when a lane is taken away from traffic and then you won't be able to drive, but they expect everyone to take the streetcar??? Not to mention zoning propane refill stations beside residential -good planning.
rant rant rant...
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Pawel. I realize as a planner you are handed 1 acre by the city and told stuff 200 people. The places to grow program is a 20 year plan ( bandaid) designed to deal with a population increase which will be brought on by the plan ( build it and they will come) If you dont build the houses they will move to where they are being built. So we can build up any area we want, why stuff it in existing areas. ..Unfortuately what we are left with after 20 years is a disaster..show me a hundred year plan then Im impressed. Cant show me as there isnt one. 20 years from now we will have a mess on our hands.
As a Planner can you agree with the places to grow program ?, From a economic point of view its great for the province as it packs people in on existing infrastructure, but from a human point of view its simply stuffing more taxpayers into a small lot at the expense of lifestyle of the existing residents. Who in the world wants to live in densitys between 200 to 400 per hectare. How can that plan do anything but mean concrete slums 20 years from now as the buildings age and people with any money move out . Do you want your children raised in areas like that?? Apartment buildings have absolutely no redeeming qualitys and never improve as they get older. They are eyesores and destroy anything in their shadow. Apartments are only good for stacking up single people and aged. They are for people who cant afford a house or physically cant maintain one. Noone dreams of someday "raising my children in a 27th floor , two bedroom, with a concrete playground"
Exempt for high end "brownstones" Townhouse projects just turn to sh*tholes over the years.
Anything above 3 or 4 storeys is a poor standard of living for the residents and surrounding area.
I know several citys are opposing the program. Niagara for example likes the fact that they a person can buy a detached for less then the price of townhouse in Burlington and has no interest in packing people in.
We have massive amounts of real estate in this country and there is no reason we have to pack them in other then to allow the government to milk more taxes out per foot at the expense of lifestyle of the citizens.
Ontario planning is just bandaiding and stuffing people into anywhere they can.
Citys have this belief that they have to grow and continue to increase in population. Why does Oakville have to add 40K new houses? The only purpose is to increase tax base however the new taxes are simply used to pay for the new infrastructure for the 40K new houses but always falls short so mil rate goes up. As per maintaining present and increasing facilitys to existing, we are on a market value system so the Mayors have had anywhere from 7 to 15% annual increase in revenue with a 2% inflation rate. The city coffers should be overflowing. Instead they are always empty and mil rates creap up. People bitch about mil rate increases but no one notices that with market value your actual taxes increase 10% a year without even a Milrate increase
The only good move the province has done is the Green zone but unfortunately the Places to Grow will make life in the city absolute sh*t . Highrises in Downtown Guelph and Milton, Peterborough etc , how is this good planning for a future? Subdivisions and smaller communitys around those areas can lead to very nice lifestyle provided they are planned right.
We are building electric trains to go into Toronto but at the same time economics has business moving out and the condos stuffing people into the downtown core instead of business thereby reducing the need for the trains. Meanwhile we dont build the highspeed trains linking Montreal Ottawa Toronto and London as the plan was 20 years ago. ( Pearson was to be scaled down and London and Mirabel airports were to be a overseas arrivals ports linked with highspeed train. Should we not be concentrating on building up the smaller towns with Live work? North Americans are the only people who drive over 1 hour to work. Any european thinks we are insane to commute like we do. Live in Wasaga, Commute to Toronto for work WTF??? There is absolutely no reason to travel more then 15 minutes to work in Todays society. Gone are the days where you had to go to a Tower in Downtown. The commuters on the Go train are dinosaurs and there should be a twenty year plan to fade out (Converting) the office towers in Toronto as they make no economic sense. We are building a hundred ( over 100)condo towers downtown to feed the office buildings which are dinosaurs and then we will build more office towers due to all the condos downtown need a place to work. Concrete jungle. There is absolutely no business in todays society that needs to be Downtown and businesses are moving out due to costs and lifestyle for the employees. No business is thinking of moving its headquarters into Toronto, they are all moving out.
Montreal had it right with Mirabel exempt the idiots never built the train that was supposed to go direct to downtown Montreal and Ottawa as called for in the original plan. The line would have allowed many small towns along the corridor.
We want Utopia but are planning Bladerunner
For the record I have held residence in Toronto , Montreal , Madrid, London , Stockholm , Bangkok, Newcastle, Manchester and with the exception of Bangkok, Toronto is the worst planned and most resident unfriendly of all of them and clearly has no long term vision
(Need a bigger soapbox to rant from)
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Read both pages. How did the topic go from Muskoka to 'trashing T.O planners'. I agree babyboomers did and may still move up north, many will buy condos. When you're retired and not too healthy, nice to be near a hospital. Cottage? If you want something to leave to your kids or grandkids, or want to them to visit you more often, lakes are good at winning your family's heart.
Dave 2, you're a very smart man, selling all your mutual funds, I should've sold mine. Been looking at fund values, U.S and Canadian. In 2001 and 2002, when the funds that were doing well before Jan 2008 weren't doing well, a few U.S funds doing well then (in 01 and 02 when the top movers of 05, 06, 07 were way down). (Inversely related). Also saved a copy on my hard drive the article in the star a few weeks ago, comparing real estate values and TSX performance (positve correlation - not sure if my terminology is correct, except for a few bubbles-peaks) since 1969. Still a few profitable areas in GTA, North Pickering up? Whodathunkit? Markam stagnating?? It was so popular a few years ago. Location, location, location. Are we guessing the next 'boom' location? Not to mention farmland going up, not to be rezoned and build subdivisions but to actually harvest crops which Wall Street and the Middle East are eyeing?
Muskoka properties? Expensive? Yes, and will probably hold value. At a tax sale? Probably go very high (if they aren't landlocked), though I think not any of the properties are on the water, one is zoned 'waterfront residential' but I think there is no water frontage and there is no public road to it. Speaking of 1989, the property values peaked then and the ones that went down significantly were the condos and the properties outside Toronto core (from 1991 till 1997 and if adjusted for inflation, still haven't reached 89 values, slightly above '89 if not adjusted for inflation). Whats happening in Oshawa? Read about the GM plant closure. In northern Ontario, we still drive hummers, gotta have a vehicle larger than most of the moose that sometimes cross the road.
Wanted to join your topic, but don't want to trash T.O planners, thought I'd talk about everything. A direct quote from many doodle friends (americans) 'Toronto is such a clean and well planned city, preserving the old as well as adding new modern structures, doesn't seem anywhere near as crowded as New York City and its the 'little apple'. These guys think the Distillary District is 'awesome'.
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thanks farrouk for the laugh of the day.
i think the landlocked piece may be the best piece,if you have a quad.
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1235 Old Parry Sound Rd has been redeemed.
Larry