1
Properties for sale / Re: Do these numbers make sense?
« on: March 04, 2010, 04:46:16 AM »Quote
I'm a bit surprised by all the negative opinions on this. I'm feeling pretty ok about it.
My final purchase price was 179k.
My net cash flow is $200/month with this tenant (I'm locking in for 5 years at 3.79%, with 35 years amortization - 3.15% for CMHC insurance). My investment is under 14k (down payment + closing). After 5 years I will have 162k left unpaid on the mortgage. Presuming I sell for purchase price + 10% in 5 years (196k); I will have grossed 32k total (200*60 + 196k-162k-14k). From this, I take away 5% commission (9.8k), 3k misc legal costs, 8k in vacancy and repairs (total of 20.8k). I get 11.2k net return on my original 14k investment in 5 years. Granted there is work involved, but this being one family unit, I hope there won't be that much. If the resale value goes up by 15% in 5 years, my return on the 14k would be 21k in 5 years. I guess that's the gambling part of it. If the resale value goes down, I guess I'm screwed .
No one is trying to rain on your parade, just giving you our honest insight with our experience.
From the numbers you quoted, here is what I think,
3K for legal, does that include land transfer tax?
8K for vacancy and repairs seems too low, as with $1275/month rent, that only gives you 6 months of vacancy within a 60 month period, never mind repairs.
One bad tenant not paying their rent, forcing you to evict wil cost you $1275 rent x 3 months it takes to evict them plus $1000 legal fees = $4825/ $200 net cash flow that = 24 months of net cash to recoup that one bad tenant. Do you have the cash onhand to cover that expense?
$200 net cash flow does not leave anyroom for interest rate rise or possible repairs.
You forgot to factor in the mortgage penalty should you sell in 5 years, thats going to be in the $3000 range.
Big money repairs, like installing a new furnace/AC will cost you $4000, roof another $1500-2000. Applicances, $1000
Not saying that you will have to do all of these things, but you will have to spend money on the unit if you want to rent it and sell it.
With the changes in mortgage rules taking effect April 19, there will be a much smaller market for small investment properties like this one.