Messages

1

General / Re: Caution: Expect interest and property tax increases will be Big killers

« on: February 09, 2011, 04:26:46 AM »

Carefull what you buy--history repeats itself--In mississauga--the BitchWitch Mayor  Hazel wants a 8% tax increase.Time to sell!

Property taxes in Mississauga are proposed (not confirmed) to go up 30% over the next 3 years.

Add that to increasing energy costs and crappy transit... Doesn't look like the 'burbs are such a nice place to live anymore 

2

General / Re: In the year of the Rabbit - HopefullyBuyers only multiply

« on: February 05, 2011, 04:34:46 PM »

In Toronto things are still moving ahead, but I suspect we will see major slowdowns in the next 6-12 months. Median and average prices are up according to the latest numbers, but volume continues to drop and days on market is only increasing. Eventually prices will have to drop in order to move inventory, and I firmly believe that will start to happen before the end of 2011.

I wish I knew because predicting market behaviour is not my cup of tea.  The Toronto market has been firm way longer then I thought it would and I badly goofed on a stock lately and it cost me a bundle. Two possibilities:

Agreed. I am not an expert or even experienced by any means but I was expecting huge slowdowns before the end of 2010, but obviously I was wrong. Credit continues to be cheap so people continue to shop, and in my own defense, the end of 2010 was showing some signs of a slowdown.

a) With the tightening of financing people who wanted to buy this spring are moving ahead earlier then normal with mid march the date the new regulations take effect.  Like HST implementaton last spring.

I also agree with this, and this is exactly why I said the spring/summer data will be very interesting to see. If sales & volume continue to be stable into the summer than I doubt we'll soon see a decline or crash of any sort (at least in the GTA)... But the new rules in March combined with the BoC's eventually NEED to raise rates could put a huge dent in summer volume, which means summer prices will need to drop to accommodate the lack of buyers... Only time will tell.

b) It now being the year of the rabbit, which I have always associated with lots of genetic reproduction; maybe it HOPEFULLY only affects buyers.  I know nothing about this though and I am sure there are smarter people on this board who can enlighten us.  

Us people out in the boonies always like a strong Toronto market because it means more people trying to escape the big city.    Because of my inattention I will miss the spring and likely summer market for the for the property I am rezoning.

I don't know much about astrology or the Chinese calendar, but to be perfectly honest I would say using either as any sort of guidance would be equivalent to rolling dice  
I think the rural areas surrounding the GTA will remain pretty stable, regardless of what happens in Toronto. Popular cottage areas will probably follow the GTA trends, with trickle down effects into other areas, but unless something cataclysmic happens I think cottage country will remain stable. First time home buyers and other irrational people spending the banks money will make their markets volatile, and for the most part I don't think these people are buying rural homes or vacation properties. Few cottage & rural properties are bought with the intention of flipping them or renovating and flipping, so there is a lot less speculation in that market in my opinion... Then again, that's the point of this whole message board!  

3

General / Re: Remember A bird in the hand - Boy am I stupid.

« on: February 04, 2011, 07:40:26 PM »

In Toronto things are still moving ahead, but I suspect we will see major slowdowns in the next 6-12 months. Median and average prices are up according to the latest numbers, but volume continues to drop and days on market is only increasing. Eventually prices will have to drop in order to move inventory, and I firmly believe that will start to happen before the end of 2011.

I could be wrong though, and if things continue to be perky this summer (when the market generally preforms better anyway) I'll retract my statement and continue watching from the sidelines. As for Condo's... I can't fathom exactly what it is that makes buying a property you still have to pay rent on appealing, but sales continue to grow and investors continue to invest, so I must be missing it.

Anyways, thats my take on the municipal market. Sorry I don't know much about the boonies 

4

General / Re: Well, CMHC rules are getting tighter...

« on: January 19, 2011, 10:06:21 PM »

I don't really think that the new rules will affect much.  Thankfully they did not touch the 5% minimum downpayment as that would really hurt.  The thing that I think it strange is that the government keeps talking about how much household debt people are carrying however, it is not generally mortgage debt that gets people into trouble, it is consumer debt such as credit cards, buy now pay later programs, etc.  Those are the things that they should be trying to reduce.  Mortgage debt is an investment, the others are not.

In some sense I agree, but the other side of it is that the CC payments are a lot easier to ignore, forget, or put off. A mortgage payment is generally the priority for most people, whether or not they can sustain making those payments.

Another thing is that RE is only an "investment" if the prices continue to rise and, depending on the circumstances, maybe if you continue to live in the property through the life of the mortgage and beyond. Also, if interest rates go up then a fixed rate mortgage will only protect people till renewal time which in many cases is <=5 years.

I think the key issue is that when it is mortgage debt that starts getting people into trouble, it will be a self propagating reaction in the RE market with the potential for a huge downturn... Which wouldn't be good given just how much of the economy is now centred on Real Estate in Canada...

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General / Well, CMHC rules are getting tighter...

« on: January 18, 2011, 12:34:39 AM »

Not sure how much people here like discussing Real Estate in general, but as you are aware (or will soon be) it looks like Flaherty is tightening up on the lending standards of our wonderful crown insurance corp, the CMHC.

http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2011/01/17/flaherty-mortgage-changes.html

Highlights:
    * The maximum amortization period for a government-insured mortgage was lowered from 35 to 30 years.
    * The upper limit that Canadians can borrow against their home equity was lowered from 90 per cent to 85 per cent.
    * Government insurance backing on home equity lines of credit, or HELOCs, has been removed.


I have for a long time suspected that Canada (at least, parts of it) was due for a severe downward swing in the RE market. These actions however look like they may soften the blow, or eliminate it altogether. On the other hand, with a March 18th deadline before the rules set in, this might just create a rush till March, and THEN a severe downturn 

Thoughts & Opinions?

Also, if this is in the wrong section feel free to move it.. Couldn't really find a truly "general RE discussion" section

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Introduce Yourself / Re: Avatars

« on: January 17, 2011, 01:07:25 AM »

Good Idea!

I added one for myself representing one of my, er, other favourite pastimes 

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General / Re: Toronto Tax Sales 2010

« on: January 09, 2011, 10:13:57 PM »

Actually they did have something. If I remember correctly they had a couple of Lockers in a condo at the foot of Yonge Street and one got redeemed if you can believe it; I think the SALES TAX in Toronto is done you are propably better to go the MLS way. HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE

Well yes I remember that from the 2009 sales, but I wasn't aware the 2010's were held. Mind you, I didn't look very hard so unless they were posted on the main page of this site I probably would have missed it.

I think it's kind of funny that Lockers would go up for tax sale... I didn't know they were taxed separately :-P
Maybe buying a locker at Tax Sale would be a good way to get cheap/free access to all the amenities the Condo tower offers.. Assuming you have a use for the locker 

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General / Toronto Tax Sales 2010

« on: December 30, 2010, 04:13:09 AM »

Way back in the summer when I first discovered this site I did my first bit of leg work and got in touch with the man who (as I understand it) coordinates the Tax Sales that the City of Toronto holds. Based on history and based on what he told me in the summer, it looked like Toronto was going to be holding their sale in October-November, as usual.

Well, as you're all aware, those days have come and passed and nothing's been posted.

Anyone know the story? Did they just not have anything to sell? (I could believe it based on how the markets been over the last few years) Or perhaps with the election and whatnot it got pushed back to 2011?

Just curious, I had no intention of bidding 

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Introduce Yourself / Re: Title and Execution Searches

« on: November 01, 2010, 02:16:04 AM »

that is for agents then there is a cost per inquiry,  You will use up several thousand inquirys . IE a piece for sale,  you will look at all the local sales for the last year or longer and pull all the adjacent owners info. easy to run several thousand inquirys and a hundred or two titles searches a year. I think I run about 6K a year on the system just related to tax sales

Out of curiosity, do you work in real estate or some other industry that justifies the costs? Or at the very least, do you have a business structured in such a way that all (or almost all) of these costs can be written off?

If you were using this for nothing but tax sales you'd have to move quite a bit of property to cover $6K plus a year... I'd imagine.

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General Discussion / Re: Muskoka

« on: October 21, 2010, 11:54:39 PM »

see the Thread called "HST" in the questions and answers. 
Just curious, how do you feel about being 55 thousand higher than second place?
this seems like the perfect opportunity to buy the second bid, pay him $5000,lose your deposit and still get it for 25,000 cheaper or is my fast math really off?

If I've learned anything from these boards, it's that most second bidders won't sell their bids just to F-you... And rightfully so, since you make a conscious choice to bid so high when you send the tender.

I've wondered though, wouldn't it be logical to send in multiple bids spaced accordingly (I'm sure a little research and experience could generate a good formula) so that if you don't get first, you get second? It'd have to be worth losing the deposit, but obviously this is a prime example where it would be.

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General Discussion / Re: Landlocked parcels with no road access

« on: October 14, 2010, 05:59:12 PM »

I didn't say hunters do everything by the book, I said the folks at the ranges/clubs do. If you've got statistics for the number of licensed club members with firearms, hunting, or other violations, I'd love to see 'em.

Granted, being a city boy I really have no experience what the attitude is in the true north, but I've been to ranges outside of the GTA and the members of those clubs took their voluntary roles more seriously than most people take their jobs. Just as well, many of them were avid hunters or long rifle target shooters, so I would expect they have more connections to the hunting community than you or I. I don't expect they'd be able to tell you exactly who was on your (or others) property and when, but I expect they'd know the names, attitudes, and perhaps habits of the "bad apples" they have come across in the past.

I could be wrong, but in my experience thus far most firearms owners cross paths at one point or another. They do need to buy their guns and ammo from the same place as others in their community, unless they do it all online or there are an abundance of gun shops in that region (which I doubt).

12

General Discussion / Re: New Danger in Buying US Foreclosure Sales

« on: October 14, 2010, 03:02:11 AM »

The issue with staying liquid is that if the currency fails, you're in a bigger risk position then if you're holding onto goods or real estate... Since at the end you actually own something with goods or real estate, whereas with currency you just own a bunch of paper.

That said, Canada is an interesting country because of our immense natural resources - combined with technological and manufacturing industries. Perhaps our currency is a little more robust than that of the U.S. on a global scale.

On another note, I'm curious what your (everyones) thoughts are on the Canadian real estate market. Over the last few years things have climbed sharply, whith prices or sales volumes or both declining over the last few months - or listings increasing (at least, in the hotspots). I've been doing some poking around and it appears that the CMHC, the corp insuring most of the 5% down 30+ yr mortgages, has liabilities nearly 100 times it's assets... Not such a big deal if those liabilities aren't called on, but come renewal time (or real estate price decline time) the banks will want someone to pay - the mortgage holder, or the mortgage insurer...

13

General Discussion / Re: New Danger in Buying US Foreclosure Sales

« on: October 13, 2010, 02:58:30 AM »

I find the angle you guys are taking interesting: Stay away from buying U.S. Mortgage Foreclosures

While it's understandable given the whole theme of this forum, there are some other factors that may come as a consequence of these unfolding events. For one, if all current foreclosure processes and sales are halted and previous ones retried, it could (i.e. will) have a serious effect on housing prices, given that these homes make up a considerable amount of the supply to buyers. On the other hand, with the way things are in the states perhaps some climbing in the value of homes would be a good idea. It's a tricky situation, because if supply does drop considerably, then having some property what you can sell with a clean title could actually be a real source of quick income.

Another thing, and I think pfm touched on this, is that if this is big enough it'll probably mean another bailout, which will have implications on inflation, consumer confidence, and the economy as a whole (didn't this just happen? I'm sensing some deja vu ) which will affect.. well, everyone. In this case having some U.S. property to sell could be pointless, if the U.S. currency goes to shit and real estate values go on a roller coaster ride - and probably not the fun kind of roller coasters.

As a Canadian with very few hard assets but a reasonable sum of [very] liquid assets, I'd be interested to hear what you guys are doing with your cash... and I don't mean the equity in your home or the money in your RRSP's... What are/would you do with your assets that you can turn to currency in <24 hours? Run to gold? Stash it in a pillowcase and sit tight? Ignore the doomsday scenario's, go on with life, and leave it where it is? Every day I read a new article about how everything's about to hit rock bottom on this continent, and half the time I actually believe it...

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General Discussion / Re: Landlocked parcels with no road access

« on: October 13, 2010, 02:39:54 AM »

PFM, your views are pretty interesting. While I don't contest them at all, I have been getting more and more involved with firearms owners in the southern ontario region over the last two years (eventually working to get my licenses) and from what I've experienced, these guys are all pretty stand up. Firearms are extremely important and sensitive issues to them, and they do EVERYTHING by the book.

I would suggest, if you experience this sort of thing in the future (or if anyone does for that matter) to get in touch with the local gun club(s). Speak with the president and/or other senior members, and let them know that someone's been hunting illegally, abusing the wildlife, the land, and most of all, making the responsible firearms owners look bad. I'm sure they'll be pretty pissed and side with you, and they'll probably put more effort into tracking down the culprits than you'd expect.

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General / Re: Sarnia Results

« on: September 28, 2010, 03:05:05 AM »

Heh, why "good luck with that one?"

Any background info on them in general?