Remember A bird in the hand - Boy am I stupid.

[Dave2]

The problem in this business is that there is always an attractive property just around the corner on the next tax sale and I have to remind my self to first take care of what I have in hand and worry about the others later.

Been working slowly on a rezoning that I like to do in winter for reasons stated earlier.  Decided to my buns in gear this morning and found to my surprise that the first open council slot is almost June.  Apparently there has been no winter slowdown this year, which begs the question what is going on.   

I know Condo Sales in Toronto for last quarter were almost an all time record.  Now I am wondering if this market is stronger then we think.  Anyone care to comment?
 

[stillsleepy]

In Toronto things are still moving ahead, but I suspect we will see major slowdowns in the next 6-12 months. Median and average prices are up according to the latest numbers, but volume continues to drop and days on market is only increasing. Eventually prices will have to drop in order to move inventory, and I firmly believe that will start to happen before the end of 2011.

I could be wrong though, and if things continue to be perky this summer (when the market generally preforms better anyway) I'll retract my statement and continue watching from the sidelines. As for Condo's... I can't fathom exactly what it is that makes buying a property you still have to pay rent on appealing, but sales continue to grow and investors continue to invest, so I must be missing it.

Anyways, thats my take on the municipal market. Sorry I don't know much about the boonies 

[Dave2]

In Toronto things are still moving ahead, but I suspect we will see major slowdowns in the next 6-12 months. Median and average prices are up according to the latest numbers, but volume continues to drop and days on market is only increasing. Eventually prices will have to drop in order to move inventory, and I firmly believe that will start to happen before the end of 2011.

I wish I knew because predicting market behaviour is not my cup of tea.  The Toronto market has been firm way longer then I thought it would and I badly goofed on a stock lately and it cost me a bundle. Two possibilities:

a) With the tightening of financing people who wanted to buy this spring are moving ahead earlier then normal with mid march the date the new regulations take effect.  Like HST implementaton last spring.

b) It now being the year of the rabbit, which I have always associated with lots of genetic reproduction; maybe it HOPEFULLY only affects buyers.  I know nothing about this though and I am sure there are smarter people on this board who can enlighten us.  

Us people out in the boonies always like a strong Toronto market because it means more people trying to escape the big city.    Because of my inattention I will miss the spring and likely summer market for the for the property I am rezoning.

[stillsleepy]

In Toronto things are still moving ahead, but I suspect we will see major slowdowns in the next 6-12 months. Median and average prices are up according to the latest numbers, but volume continues to drop and days on market is only increasing. Eventually prices will have to drop in order to move inventory, and I firmly believe that will start to happen before the end of 2011.

I wish I knew because predicting market behaviour is not my cup of tea.  The Toronto market has been firm way longer then I thought it would and I badly goofed on a stock lately and it cost me a bundle. Two possibilities:

Agreed. I am not an expert or even experienced by any means but I was expecting huge slowdowns before the end of 2010, but obviously I was wrong. Credit continues to be cheap so people continue to shop, and in my own defense, the end of 2010 was showing some signs of a slowdown.

a) With the tightening of financing people who wanted to buy this spring are moving ahead earlier then normal with mid march the date the new regulations take effect.  Like HST implementaton last spring.

I also agree with this, and this is exactly why I said the spring/summer data will be very interesting to see. If sales & volume continue to be stable into the summer than I doubt we'll soon see a decline or crash of any sort (at least in the GTA)... But the new rules in March combined with the BoC's eventually NEED to raise rates could put a huge dent in summer volume, which means summer prices will need to drop to accommodate the lack of buyers... Only time will tell.

b) It now being the year of the rabbit, which I have always associated with lots of genetic reproduction; maybe it HOPEFULLY only affects buyers.  I know nothing about this though and I am sure there are smarter people on this board who can enlighten us.  

Us people out in the boonies always like a strong Toronto market because it means more people trying to escape the big city.    Because of my inattention I will miss the spring and likely summer market for the for the property I am rezoning.

I don't know much about astrology or the Chinese calendar, but to be perfectly honest I would say using either as any sort of guidance would be equivalent to rolling dice  
I think the rural areas surrounding the GTA will remain pretty stable, regardless of what happens in Toronto. Popular cottage areas will probably follow the GTA trends, with trickle down effects into other areas, but unless something cataclysmic happens I think cottage country will remain stable. First time home buyers and other irrational people spending the banks money will make their markets volatile, and for the most part I don't think these people are buying rural homes or vacation properties. Few cottage & rural properties are bought with the intention of flipping them or renovating and flipping, so there is a lot less speculation in that market in my opinion... Then again, that's the point of this whole message board!  

[Dave2]

There is only one person on this board that I know might potentially know but I will not disclose confidentialities.  I had the occasion to meet him locally on a beautiful fall day some time ago when we were looking at a couple of local taxsale properties.  

The only hint I will give was he once gave a post referring to inspecting property with beautiful chinese ladies in company which I thought was a very smart idea.  Unfortunately when we met I did not have the fortune to meet them,   but who knows maybe some time in the future. (I especially like them when they wear a "cheongsam" but it is only probably safe for me if my wife is not around.)

Unfortunately on this board we are lone wolves which at times I have felt works against us in hunting big game.   To hunt an elephant you need a pack not singles.  Tried to encourage co-operation in the past but have always got shot down.  

[Les Pisrael]

 
USA is broke,owes over $14 trillion dollars.Wants to add another wopping $650 billion.But is having a problem.China says--increase the interest rates--or nothing  
 Back in the early 80's,Staring a family bought a Mississauga party,interest rates were stable at 9-10%. my mortgage was 1 year close-- Then,Jimmy Carter made a Big Boo-Boo, wanted to help the Palestinians.-Jewish Money Changers--off with his head. My renewed mortgage 17 1/2 %,some got hit with 21%. Poor Jimmy, after one term--toast and out. Reagan and Turd Bush took office and in few months interest rates dropped to  6 1/2%. Not only did the money changers screw Jimmy,so did the oil companies--Going to run out of oil in 10 years.
 Reason that interest rates are low-- Again Political scam--suckered the masses to good times and support the 2 USA invasions and cover-up of Zionist Sept 11 2001 attacks.
   The turn around is about to start--massive interest rates increases--expect--10-12% rates soon--Canada always follows USA interest rates.Secondary hit will be high property taxes
 Note: After high interest rates in the 80's,the banks made a killing--they foreclosed thousands of commercial properties and kept them  
 Carefull what you buy--history repeats itself--In mississauga--the BitchWitch Mayor  Hazel wants a 8% tax increase.Time to sell!

[DF1]

Cue the X-files music, Les is back.

[Dave2]

Certainly I think it is fair to say Les would not be regarded as the most optimistic on this board.  Interesting there are people who share his perspective.  This writer from Chile writing about the United States forecasts hyperinflation:

http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2011/02/ballsy-or-crazy-where-are-we-on.html?utm_source=BP_recent

He even makes specific forecasts about the US consumer price index:

The other major point of the October 28 post was that I became increasingly confident in calling for precise inflation targets, which would signal imminent hyperinflation. I wrote:

Therefore, I am confident in predicting the following sequence of events:
? By March of 2011, once higher commodity prices reach the marketplace, monthly CPI will be at an annualized rate of not less than 5%.
? By July of 2011, annualized CPI will be no less than 8% annualized.
? By October of 2011, annualized CPI will have crossed 10%.
? By March of 2012, annualized CPI will cross the hyperinflationary tipping point of 15%.
After that, CPI will rapidly increase, much like it did in 1980.  

I don't agree with it but I won't ignore it either.  Might have to put all my land to productive use (We are still eating produce from our garden.) especially as the Ontario court has said no go to all those religious fanatics whom I was hoping  would need country land.

http://www.cbc.ca/consumer/story/2011/02/07/ontario-marijuana-law365.html

At least growing crops will not be as painstacking as putting up a residence.  I have to visit 4 diffierent regional departments and file applications tomorrow on one piece of land and might get it if I am lucky by summer.  These are all prebuilding permit.

[Les Pisrael]

  Dave2   If real bad times come,you better invest in some mean husky German Sheppard dogs and high fences and a machine gun to protect your crops.
It reminds me of a unforgettable  farmer's tale; Man and Wife owned a farm and hired farmer hands by posting a sign--Farm hands needed to pick crops, paid by the bushels and meals provided. It was a easy money making scam. Drifters worked the fields but the catch agreement was--no pay until 200 bushels picked. All workers couldn't pick the quota and left after offered meal.
This went on for sometime until a weak looking drifter answered the add and accepted to work the fields. During lunch time,the drifter was seen out in the fields resting and taking easy.Once dinner hour appeared,the Farmer and wife asked him-,why haven't you pick anything yet and-aren't you hungry? Nope! he said, I just came back from town and sold 50 bushels of what I picked and had a good time.

[stillsleepy]

Carefull what you buy--history repeats itself--In mississauga--the BitchWitch Mayor  Hazel wants a 8% tax increase.Time to sell!

Property taxes in Mississauga are proposed (not confirmed) to go up 30% over the next 3 years.

Add that to increasing energy costs and crappy transit... Doesn't look like the 'burbs are such a nice place to live anymore 

[Dave2]

Dave2   If real bad times come,you better invest in some mean husky German Sheppard dogs and high fences and a machine gun to protect your crops.50 bushels of what I picked and had a good time.  

Les:  You don't have to face me you have to face my wife which is much more dangerous then me.  Ask Frank he has to deal with her ethnic cousin.  As for me I am descended from a long line of (DIS) honest highlanders about which the then King of Scotland wrote in 1490.  

Their nearest neighbours to the south were the small Clan Neish.

      They descended from Ness, son of one William, who was Sheriff of Perth and Lord of Math established a small, independent clan, and in 1250 A.D. their headquarters were in a keep on a crannog, or artificial islands, at St. Fillans on Loch Earn. They seem to have been an unruly and troublesome lot, for at a Council held at Linlithgow on January 9, 1490, James IV gave orders to Lord Drummond: "Whin 15 dias fra this dai furth to ger cast doon ye hoos of ye Easter Isle of Loch Earn, and distroy all ye strengthis of ye samen, and tak away ye bate, and put her to ye Wester Isle (at Locheranhead)."[/color][/b]
While we made mistakes occasionally (you  can read about it here) (as one Scottish Historian said it makes the Hatfields and McCoys look like a Sunday picnic.) 

http://www.mcnabb.us/history/mcnabblegend.htm

Compared to my wife's family we were pussy cats. Ask the Russians.  A guy named Nikita Krushchev said it best when they tried to take their family farm in Karelia.  "It cost us a million men"