Henshaw Lake

[Jayz]

Looks like no one else wants to admit that they send in a bid even though most agree that it would be redeemed.

I wanted to wait untill the last minute. And I was right it was redeemed before last minute. 

To verbalnoncents, I was hoping to "steal" it for $155,000. Did I beat everybody in here? 

[Frank]

To verbalnoncents, I was hoping to "steal" it for $155,000. Did I beat everybody in here? 
[/quote]

You would have probably close to $100,000 shy of the winning bid.

[dyen310]

I was going to send a $100,111.11 bid...so you beat me by 50k 

The interior was actually in decent condition (my team had a peek through the windows).  With about 10-20k rehab that cottage would have been a nice sell...oh well it was redeemed.     But good for the owner I guess...they only have like 7k in tax arrears.

Jayz, were you the guy we met when we go visit?  We were the team of two guys and one girl.

Good luck bidding on the next one to all of you 

Daniel Yen

[Jayz]

To verbalnoncents, I was hoping to "steal" it for $155,000. Did I beat everybody in here? 

You would have probably close to $100,000 shy of the winning bid.
[/quote]

One thing good about this property is it's at the end of the road with lots of private space. However it's on a very small lake with a traffic road across. I would buy it at this price, but wouldn't compete against some crazy rich guys.

[Jayz]

Jayz, were you the guy we met when we go visit?  We were the team of two guys and one girl.

Good luck bidding on the next one to all of you 

Daniel Yen

Wasn't me. I met a well dressed couple though.

[quikcar]

I saw a couple leaving there driving a new Honda Pilot, they were also checking the Moon River, Bala spot when I was there.  Would that have perhaps been any of you folks??

[Frank]

Jayz, were you the guy we met when we go visit?  We were the team of two guys and one girl.

Good luck bidding on the next one to all of you 

Daniel Yen

Wasn't me. I met a well dressed couple though.

I've suggested this in the past, and haven't seen anyone at the sales with one yet.  If you all wear a smiley face like the walmart greeters do, on your lapel, then you will know that person is from the web-site, and you can introduce yourselves...maybe develop new partnerships (even god-parents for the kids some day), who knows.

[Pfm1011]

Frank the smiley face is a good idea, If you don't have one convenient ,draw a big one on the back of the  papers your  holding . Frank wont need one as everyone will recognize him from his picture, hahahaha

You think the high bid would have be in the 250 range?? I didn't drive up but was just going to go blind . Jayz would have beat me but I'm not a big fan of little lots on tiny lakes so I could have cared less if I won.  Would have been a clean and flip fast .  It would have to have been an absolute steal for me. I was going in around 125 knowing my chances were not much better then a snowballs in hell but not caring if I lost.

  I also really believe that Muskoka ( all cottages)  is going to get slaughtered by years end. Too many deals in the US.  Muskoka was powered by US speculators  ( and Canadians buying in the frenzy caused by them)and purchased based on the equity built on your primary house. The Americans can sell today at 35% below what they paid 3 or 4 years ago and  break even. So you can absolutely forget appreciation in all markets and huge depreciation in the cottage market.   All it takes to crack the market is one or two out cheap , same as what drove it up. Of course you wont see the bargains in the "what it sold for" section as the realtors cant have the real prices coming out when that happens.

I'm a doom and gloomer but I think that thing wont even pull 250 by summers end as it is small lake and old building .  There is going to be a pile of nicer ones being fire-saled up there. Cottages don't get a spring boom like house trying to get the summer close for school .They sell in August, Sept after people hang at a friends cottage and think..wouldn't this be nice.. hence the realtor cockroaches can keep the BS  up till Oct then even they will have a hard time finding a sucker.   ( despite Bank of Canada ,CMHC, CRA etc the Toronto Real estate board and Royal Lepage are still spewing " nows the time to buy" BS, Lets just not mention the 18% drop in sales)

All the smart money is running south of the border. Florida, Arizona  South Carolina,etc are all getting slaughtered and by fall Florida will be completely wiped as there is a pile of new builds coming online due to completion. Article in globe estimate 30 to 40% walkaway from deposits.  Florida is seeing houses going at 60% to 70 % off last year  (however that is really just back to 2000 prices due to the stupidity of the last couple years down there) add in our 35% increase in the dollar and we have a recipe for some bargains for Canadians.   A total reverse of what powered our cottage market stupidity.


(blah blah blah listen to me..blah blah blah , I'm all knowing blah blah blah I'm so smart.blah blah blah ....Long winded idiot aren't I )

[Frank]

Unlike you, I am quite comfortable with the Muskoka market.  I am building there right now.  The American money you speak of is not the stuff to cut and run...mostly people that have way more than you or I can every think of having.  There is still a huge pent up demand for cottages.

Even though the deals are there in Florida, I can't even think about buying there.  Nice place to visit for a few weeks, but if I owned a place there, I would have to commit to going there regular and for extended stays...and I'm not about to tie myself down to something so far away (I don't have my own personal leer jet available).  I have friends that spend six months of the year there, and I'm sure that for some people that is their cup of tea..but not mine.

Clearly you would have been wasting your money and time with $125.  Where in Muskoka would you be able to buy a cottage like that one for $250? ..and, right around the corner from Port Carling.  I'm only suggesting that would be the price as it is impossible to estimate its true worth without a detailed interior inspection.   Did they vent the roof properly or is it all rotten underneath?  Were the foundations pinned properly, or are they ready to go, and you need structural work to keep it from sliding into the lake?  These are things that you know up front when you buy on the market, but are secret in tax sale, therefore I would have to assume it would come in  less than market, but still quite high for a tax sale. 

[speedfreeksteve]

I also really believe that Muskoka ( all cottages)  is going to get slaughtered by years end. Too many deals in the US.  Muskoka was powered by US speculators  ( and Canadians buying in the frenzy caused by them)and purchased based on the equity built on your primary house. The Americans can sell today at 35% below what they paid 3 or 4 years ago and  break even. So you can absolutely forget appreciation in all markets and huge depreciation in the cottage market.   All it takes to crack the market is one or two out cheap , same as what drove it up. Of course you wont see the bargains in the "what it sold for" section as the realtors cant have the real prices coming out when that happens.

I'd like to know who these US speculators are? Muskoka was founded on Bay street yuppies and old money more than anything. Very very very few cottages in Muskoka are bought for primarily investment purposes. The odd piece of land.. perhaps, but that has little to do with speculation, it's more about supply and demand. You're really better off buying commercial real estate considering the risks involved (natural disasters that insurance won't cover).

The market won't get "cracked". The prices are probably more stable there than they are in the Greater Toronto Area. Real estate his went up in value 18 of the past 20 years, and the two down years were modest reductions.

[Pfm1011]

The old money has been up there for years and they arent going anywhere. They hate the boom just as much as their lakes are being crowded and their tax bills insane.. Over the last 3 to 4 years  prices up there have gone insane. 3 or 4  years ago there were  very very  few piece that would command north of a million and they were huge family compounds with stunnng cottages.  Now they are asking north of 500 k for 100 ft of empty lot frontage. The price increases in the muskokas is the highest in the country by a huge margin

RE Florida: I find alot of the place boring (except South Beach and the Keys) I got stuck for a month in Daytona once, felt like a scene from Deliverence ( kept hearing Dualing Banjo's and squelling pigs in my head) .( Mind you I got stuck for a month in South Beach Miami and I had to be dragged out of there kicking )  however many like the place especially Gulf coast (Naples= Oakville)  and its a good buy for future retirement and family vacation. The money that flows into there on deals, doesnt flow here. Dont like Florida weather , Vermont and Upstate New York has got the same deals.

You cant seriously be suggesting that Muskoka real estate hasnt been "beyond insane" over the last couple years. Of course Im in Oakville so if you want to talk insane price increases....

Im a firm believer in the 7% annual formula. Anything above that always gets "corrected" ( 5.6 over the last 25 including the crash of the early nineties)

GTA commercial today is a real bad bet due to the last two years. Warehouse has gone from 65 to 130 with a  4 a foot net return. ICI Realtors dont call is Sh*tty ROI. They now call it "diminishing returns". I got taken out of a deal in Oakville where a moron paid 190 a ft for warehouse.

Again commercial has been powered by the pensions which stopped at 90 to 100 but the punters jumped on to "ride the wave". Commercial finally reached 1989 prices in 2004 . So any commercial buyer from 88 to 90 finally broke even after 15 years. (not counting cost of money)

We can banter back and forth but this is a "wait and see who's right" on this one. Lets revisit this one next year.